By Dr Evangelos Venetis*
While emphasis is given in the news to the Sunni fighters of the
Islamic State (ISIS), other major developments are going unnoticed by
the international media. In the midst of rising tension resulting from
Sunni and Shiite conflict in Syria and Iraq, with the Sunnis seeking to
reduce the Shiite influence in Iraq and Syria, the reverse geopolitical
process took place a few days ago in Yemen, namely the advance and
capture the capital Sana'a by Shiite Houthis. This development is
comparable in geopolitical importance to the declaration of the Islamic
State caliphate.
The Shiite Houthi tribe who adhere to the Five
Shiite Imams (descendants of the Prophet of Islam, Zaidis, or Fivers)
differ from the majority of Shiite Jafaris (Twelvers) who believe in the
Twelve Imams and the Ismailis (Seveners) who believe in the Seven
Imams. Houthis control the northwestern part of Yemen and the border
with Saudi Arabia. They are the main geopolitical force of the Yemeni
Zaidi Shiite doctrine, who in total make up almost half the population
of 23 million Yemenis with the other half being Sunni Shafi'i.
During
the Arab Spring, Yemen's Houthis and Sunni liberals ousted pro-Western
President Ali Abdullah Saleh and increased their influence, including
through increased participation in the community and greater autonomy in
the north. However the new moderate president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi,
does not seem to be dealing with the growing influence of Houthi
politicians in Yemen. Mismanagement and the lack of Houthi
representation in power are some of the criticisms aimed at the
administration of Hadi, who is walking a tightrope between the Houthis
in the north and al-Qaida in the south.
The ongoing crisis in
Yemen due to the takeover of much of the government by the Houthis is a
phenomenal development that transcends the events of 2012, when Saudi
Arabia fought against the Houthis on its southern borders. Saudi Arabia
and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf support Hadi’s fragile
pro-Western government and apparently the intelligence and security
forces were taken by surprise in a fashion similar to the surprise of
Shiite Iraq at the rise of the ISIS forces. It is obvious that the
Houthis’ movement is destined to evolve into a revolution with
unpredictable developments for the stability of the Arabian Peninsula.
So there are now two open Sunni-Shiite fronts: the Sunni advance in
Syria and Iraq and the Shiite march in Yemen. Apparently, geopolitical
instability is spreading with disastrous consequences for everyone.
*Evangelos
Venetis is the head of the Middle East Research Project of the Hellenic
Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
