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Κυριακή 15 Φεβρουαρίου 2026
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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Türkiye
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Washington, DC – February 13, 2026: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Türkiye.[1]
Since the 2024 Article IV, Türkiye’s disinflation program has shown successes. Inflation fell from 49.4 percent (y/y) in September 2024 to 30.9 percent in December 2025 on the back of strong fiscal consolidation, prudent income policies, and a tight monetary policy stance. Following a temporary deceleration in mid-2024, GDP growth has remained strong, forecast at 4.1 percent in 2025. Lira demand has strengthened, bolstering international reserves, and the current account deficit remains adequately financed.
The current policy mix continues to balance disinflation with steady growth. Tight monetary policy, moderate wage growth, and broadly neutral fiscal policy are expected to support gradual disinflation. End-2026 inflation is expected at 23 percent (y/y), as domestic demand remains strong. Boosted by further policy rate cuts and rising confidence, growth is expected at 4.2 percent for 2026. The current account deficit would remain adequately financed, while depositor confidence and strong gold prices would allow reserves to stay at around 80 percent of the IMF’s adequacy metric.
While growth should remain solid and inflation will fall, this approach bears risks and costs. External risks remain elevated due to persistent global trade uncertainty and regional conflicts. The materialization of an adverse shock, like an increase of energy prices or a negative weather event, could further extend the period of still-high inflation. Moreover, the gradual approach to disinflation has weighed on the financial sector and slowed productivity growth.
Executive Board Assessment[2]...
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