Digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, additive manufacturing
(3D printing) and Blockchain have been made achievable by the exponential rise in computing
power, bandwidth and digital information.
Digital technologies are reshaping consumer habits by shifting purchases online through
the widespread use of internet-enabled devices which provide consumers with direct access
to online markets. It is estimated that, in 2016, the value of e-commerce transactions totalled US$ 27.7 trillion,
of which US$ 23.9 trillion was business-to-business e-commerce transactions. On the supply side, digital technologies allow for easier entry and increased product diversity,
making it easier for firms to produce, promote and distribute their products at a lower cost.
The benefits of digital technologies notwithstanding, they are also giving rise to a number of
concerns, including market concentration, loss of privacy and security threats, the digital divide,
and the question of whether digital technologies have really increased productivity.
International trade costs declined by 15% between 1996 and 2014. New technologies
will help to further reduce trade costs. Our projections predict that trade could grow yearly
by 1.8 to 2 percentage points more until 2030 as a result of the falling trade costs, amounting
to a cumulated growth of 31 to 34 percentage points over 15 years.
The wide adoption of digital technologies changes the composition of trade in services and
goods, and redefines intellectual property rights in trade. Trade in information technology
products has tripled in the past two decades, reaching US$ 1.6 trillion in 2016.
Τhe importance of services in the composition of trade is expected to increase. We predict
the share of services trade to grow from 21% to 25% by 2030.
