Greece
is to hold a snap parliamentary election on September 20 – for the
second time this year. It will be recalled that the first early election
was held past January because that country’s legislative body failed to
elect the president. The September elections are caused by the breakup
of a SYRIZA-led coalition, when 40 MPs quit this party in protest
against the policy of Premier Alexis Tsipras who had accepted EU
conditions for the third bailout package for Greece. This election is
important for Ukraine because Greece remains the only EU country that
has not ratified the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. For this reason,
our country is interested in the speediest formation of a new stable
Greek Cabinet, which will ratify before the end of this year this
agreement that comes into force next year.
The Day requested Dr. Athanasios Drougos, senior analyst in defense and counterterrorism (www.analystsforchange.org)
to tell us about Greek society’s expectations for the snap elections,
what the next government may be like, and what impact the refugee crisis
in Europe may have on the new parliament.
“THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO COPE WITH UNTHINKABLE DOMESTIC PROBLEMS”
“The snap
elections on September 20 (almost 8 months after the victory of SYRIZA)
radically differ from the previous ones and are likely to bring a
different parliamentary milieu to the surface. Most Greeks are
disappointed with Tsipras’ turnover to our creditors, an extremely tough
third Greek bailout program, and the inner split in his party.
Therefore, they will be sending certain signals to all political groups,
especially SYRIZA. Tsipras lost a parliamentary majority a month ago,
when more than 40 members of his party, who disagree to his policies,
formed Popular Unity, a party of their own.
“The latest
polls show that SYRIZA remains the largest party (although it
intensively vying with the conservative party New Democracy. The two
parties are expected to run almost neck to neck and gain not more than
30 percent of all the votes each. Therefore, none of the parties will be
able to form a government on its own. Polls also indicate that the
small nationalist party Independent Greeks will fail to overstep the
3-percent threshold and will thus stay out of parliament.
“The
impression is that the new government will hardly be stable and capable
of coping with inconceivable domestic financial, social, and
humanitarian problems, which may again lead to fresh elections next
year.”
What impact can the migration crisis in Europe and the inrush of refugees to Greece have on these elections?
“The big
waves of refugees and immigrants from Syria this summer will have a
dramatic and profound impact on the results of Greek elections,
especially on the Aegean Islands. Most of the Greeks on these islands
will vote against SYRIZA because they think the government has no plan
of coping with this important matter and that, in some aspects of the
refugee problem, the country was ill-prepared for overcoming this
crisis, for it had no Plan B. So, of course, this problem has immense
and multidimensional consequences for the entire Europe. But the Greek
people are deeply disappointed. Besides, the EU has offered Athens no
real, strong and flexible support, and critically needed assistance. On
the other hand, there have been many instances of violence, and various
circles in Greece believe that the humanitarian crisis creates new
unsolved problems, such as danger to the border and internal security
(for example, illegal entry into my country of people who are linked to
extremist Islamist groups and have a different agenda).”
According
to public opinion polls, SYRIZA will win these elections in spite of a
split in Tsipras’s party. How can you explain this?...
